Pro League · Sunday, 25 October 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 62% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Pro League average is 52%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 38% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 62% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts Club Brugge KV at 68%, the draw at 17% and St. Truiden at 15%, from expected goals of 2.69 and 1.23.
The league sets the starting point. Pro League has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Club Brugge KV have 6 in 8 this season (3 of 4 at home), St. Truiden 5 in 8 (3 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 57% and 54%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 8 and 8 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 59% and 54%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Head to head. These sides have met 7 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 71%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 56%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 75%, from expected goals of 2.69 for Club Brugge KV and 1.23 for St. Truiden. Folding in 30% of that view gives 62%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Brugge KV | 8 | 75% | 25% | 38% |
| St. Truiden | 8 | 63% | 50% | 50% |
More: Club Brugge KV season stats · St. Truiden season stats · Pro League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.