Premier League · Sunday, 25 October 2026 · 11:00. Our rating makes this 50% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Premier League average is 47%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 71% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 52% | No |
The result model puts Bukovyna at 37%, the draw at 28% and Kryvbas KR at 36%, from expected goals of 1.26 and 1.23.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.44 | 65% | 50% | -15% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.62 | 35% | 50% | +15% |
| Both teams to score | 1.50 | 63% | 48% | -15% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Bukovyna 1.67, draw 3.90, Kryvbas KR 3.90.
The league sets the starting point. Premier League has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Bukovyna have 4 in 9 this season (2 of 5 at home), Kryvbas KR 4 in 7 (1 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 47% and 50%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 7 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 47% and 55%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 50%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 45%, from expected goals of 1.26 for Bukovyna and 1.23 for Kryvbas KR. Folding in 30% of that view gives 49%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 50%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bukovyna | 9 | 44% | 22% | 33% |
| Kryvbas KR | 7 | 57% | 43% | 57% |
Our numbers give this match a 68% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 31% of two or more. The Premier League rates are 69% and 31%. After the break: 75% for a goal and 42% for two or more (league 76% and 41%). Bukovyna's last 9 games had a first-half goal 56% of the time and a second-half goal 67%; Kryvbas KR's last 50, 72% and 76%. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · tomorrow.
More: Bukovyna season stats · Kryvbas KR season stats · Premier League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.