Super Liga · Saturday, 24 October 2026 · 17:00. Our rating makes this 49% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Super Liga average is 50%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 72% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | Yes |
The result model puts Zemun at 40%, the draw at 28% and Macva at 32%, from expected goals of 1.3 and 1.14.
The league sets the starting point. Super Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Zemun have 7 in 12 this season (2 of 6 at home), Macva 5 in 12 (3 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 53% and 47%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 50%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 44%, from expected goals of 1.3 for Zemun and 1.14 for Macva. Folding in 30% of that view gives 48%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 49%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Zemun season stats · Macva season stats · Super Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.