League Two · Saturday, 24 October 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 50% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The League Two average is 47%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts York at 53%, the draw at 25% and Port Vale at 22%, from expected goals of 1.67 and 0.98.
The league sets the starting point. League Two has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. York have 5 in 10 this season (4 of 5 at home), Port Vale 1 in 9 (1 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 48% and 37%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 10 and 9 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 58% and 41%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 49%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 49%, from expected goals of 1.67 for York and 0.98 for Port Vale. Folding in 30% of that view gives 49%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 50%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: York season stats · Port Vale season stats · League Two table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.