Urvalsdeild · Saturday, 24 October 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 71% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Urvalsdeild average is 64%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 29% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 53% | 47% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 70% | 30% | Yes |
The result model puts Vikingur Reykjavik at 60%, the draw at 19% and Fram Reykjavik at 21%, from expected goals of 2.59 and 1.53.
The league sets the starting point. Urvalsdeild has produced over 2.5 goals in 64% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Vikingur Reykjavik have 20 in 26 this season (10 of 13 at home), Fram Reykjavik 20 in 25 (8 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 71% and 72%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 26 and 25 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 69% and 67%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 67%.
Head to head. These sides have met 7 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 86%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 68%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 78%, from expected goals of 2.59 for Vikingur Reykjavik and 1.53 for Fram Reykjavik. Folding in 30% of that view gives 71%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vikingur Reykjavik | 26 | 77% | 65% | 69% |
| Fram Reykjavik | 25 | 80% | 72% | 80% |
More: Vikingur Reykjavik season stats · Fram Reykjavik season stats · Urvalsdeild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.