FA WSL (W) · Saturday, 24 October 2026 · 12:45. Our rating makes this 56% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The FA WSL (W) average is 55%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 44% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 65% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts Tottenham Hotspur W at 25%, the draw at 24% and Arsenal W at 51%, from expected goals of 1.21 and 1.83.
The league sets the starting point. FA WSL (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 55% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Tottenham Hotspur W have 5 in 6 this season (3 of 3 at home), Arsenal W 1 in 6 (1 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 61% and 47%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 6 and 6 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 57% and 52%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 55%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 58%, from expected goals of 1.21 for Tottenham Hotspur W and 1.83 for Arsenal W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 56%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham Hotspur W | 6 | 83% | 83% | 67% |
| Arsenal W | 6 | 17% | 17% | 50% |
More: Tottenham Hotspur W season stats · Arsenal W season stats · FA WSL (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.