Frauen-Bundesliga (W) · Saturday, 24 October 2026 · 13:00. Our rating makes this 70% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Frauen-Bundesliga (W) average is 67%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 62% | 38% | Yes |
The result model puts Stuttgart W at 21%, the draw at 20% and Eintracht Frankfurt W at 59%, from expected goals of 1.35 and 2.36.
The league sets the starting point. Frauen-Bundesliga (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 67% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Stuttgart W have 4 in 6 this season (2 of 3 at home), Eintracht Frankfurt W 2 in 7 (1 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 67% and 59%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 6 and 7 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 69% and 71%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 69%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 72%, from expected goals of 1.35 for Stuttgart W and 2.36 for Eintracht Frankfurt W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 70%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stuttgart W | 6 | 67% | 33% | 67% |
| Eintracht Frankfurt W | 7 | 29% | 29% | 57% |
More: Stuttgart W season stats · Eintracht Frankfurt W season stats · Frauen-Bundesliga (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.