Super League · Saturday, 24 October 2026 · 17:00. Our rating makes this 66% to go over 2.5 goals, though our own outlier boards contradict the call, so we sit it out. The Super League average is 68%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 34% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 58% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 65% | 35% | Yes |
The result model puts Servette FC at 58%, the draw at 21% and FC Vaduz at 21%, from expected goals of 2.1 and 1.2.
The league sets the starting point. Super League has produced over 2.5 goals in 68% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Servette FC have 5 in 10 this season (2 of 5 at home), FC Vaduz 10 in 10 (5 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 63% and 78%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 10 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 64% and 69%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 67%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 64%, from expected goals of 2.1 for Servette FC and 1.2 for FC Vaduz. Folding in 30% of that view gives 66%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Servette FC | 10 | 50% | 20% | 50% |
| FC Vaduz | 10 | 100% | 50% | 90% |
More: Servette FC season stats · FC Vaduz season stats · Super League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.