Bundesliga · Saturday, 24 October 2026 · 18:30. Our rating makes this 56% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Bundesliga average is 53%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 44% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 67% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts Rapid Vienna at 72%, the draw at 17% and Austria Lustenau at 11%, from expected goals of 2.53 and 0.92.
The league sets the starting point. Bundesliga has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Rapid Vienna have 7 in 9 this season (4 of 5 at home), Austria Lustenau 6 in 9 (3 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 60% and 57%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 9 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 50% and 53%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 67%, from expected goals of 2.53 for Rapid Vienna and 0.92 for Austria Lustenau. Folding in 30% of that view gives 56%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rapid Vienna | 9 | 78% | 44% | 44% |
| Austria Lustenau | 9 | 67% | 33% | 67% |
More: Rapid Vienna season stats · Austria Lustenau season stats · Bundesliga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.