Ekstraklasa · Saturday, 24 October 2026 · 16:30. Our rating makes this 58% to go over 2.5 goals, though our own outlier boards contradict the call, so we sit it out. The Ekstraklasa average is 54%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 42% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 63% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts Pogon Szczecin at 71%, the draw at 17% and Radomiak Radom at 12%, from expected goals of 2.47 and 0.93.
The league sets the starting point. Ekstraklasa has produced over 2.5 goals in 54% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Pogon Szczecin have 3 in 10 this season (2 of 6 at home), Radomiak Radom 7 in 10 (3 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 47% and 58%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 10 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 52% and 57%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 60%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 54%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 66%, from expected goals of 2.47 for Pogon Szczecin and 0.93 for Radomiak Radom. Folding in 30% of that view gives 58%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pogon Szczecin | 10 | 30% | 20% | 40% |
| Radomiak Radom | 10 | 70% | 50% | 60% |
More: Pogon Szczecin season stats · Radomiak Radom season stats · Ekstraklasa table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.