League One · Saturday, 24 October 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 48% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The League One average is 51%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 52% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 76% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | no pick |
The result model puts Oxford United at 47%, the draw at 28% and Bradford at 25%, from expected goals of 1.38 and 0.92.
The league sets the starting point. League One has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Oxford United have 6 in 8 this season (2 of 3 at home), Bradford 1 in 10 (0 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 57% and 39%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 8 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 50% and 48%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 49%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 40%, from expected goals of 1.38 for Oxford United and 0.92 for Bradford. Folding in 30% of that view gives 47%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 48%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oxford United | 8 | 75% | 38% | 75% |
| Bradford | 10 | 10% | 0% | 20% |
More: Oxford United season stats · Bradford season stats · League One table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.