League One · Saturday, 24 October 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 54% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The League One average is 51%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 46% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 71% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts Notts County at 24%, the draw at 26% and Stockport County at 51%, from expected goals of 1.02 and 1.62.
The league sets the starting point. League One has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Notts County have 3 in 9 this season (2 of 4 at home), Stockport County 6 in 10 (2 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 46% and 54%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 52% and 55%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 53%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 56%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 49%, from expected goals of 1.02 for Notts County and 1.62 for Stockport County. Folding in 30% of that view gives 54%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notts County | 9 | 33% | 11% | 67% |
| Stockport County | 10 | 60% | 50% | 50% |
More: Notts County season stats · Stockport County season stats · League One table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.