Damallsvenskan (W) · Saturday, 24 October 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 63% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Damallsvenskan (W) average is 64%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 37% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 60% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts Norrköping W at 60%, the draw at 21% and Uppsala W at 19%, from expected goals of 2.1 and 1.12.
The league sets the starting point. Damallsvenskan (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 64% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Norrköping W have 9 in 22 this season (6 of 11 at home), Uppsala W 17 in 22 (9 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 53% and 70%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 22 and 22 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 55% and 70%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 63%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 62%, from expected goals of 2.1 for Norrköping W and 1.12 for Uppsala W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 63%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norrköping W | 22 | 41% | 23% | 45% |
| Uppsala W | 22 | 77% | 64% | 32% |
More: Norrköping W season stats · Uppsala W season stats · Damallsvenskan (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.