Muğlaspor v İstanbulspor — prediction, stats and goal analysis

1. Lig · Saturday, 24 October 2026 · 14:00. Our rating makes this 53% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 1. Lig average is 52%.

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Our ratings for this match

The result model puts Muğlaspor at 44%, the draw at 25% and İstanbulspor at 31%, from expected goals of 1.64 and 1.35.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. 1. Lig has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Muğlaspor have 3 in 10 this season (3 of 5 at home), İstanbulspor 7 in 11 (5 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 45% and 56%.

Last season still counts, briefly. With 10 and 11 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 46% and 55%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 57%, from expected goals of 1.64 for Muğlaspor and 1.35 for İstanbulspor. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

More: Muğlaspor season stats · İstanbulspor season stats · 1. Lig table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.