First League · Saturday, 24 October 2026 · 16:00. Our rating makes this 49% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The First League average is 45%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 74% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | Yes |
The result model puts Lokomotiv Sofia at 41%, the draw at 25% and Botev Vratsa at 33%, from expected goals of 1.53 and 1.35.
The league sets the starting point. First League has produced over 2.5 goals in 45% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Lokomotiv Sofia have 6 in 11 this season (3 of 5 at home), Botev Vratsa 6 in 11 (5 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 48% and 48%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 11 and 11 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 48% and 41%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 44%.
Head to head. These sides have met 8 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 45%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 55%, from expected goals of 1.53 for Lokomotiv Sofia and 1.35 for Botev Vratsa. Folding in 30% of that view gives 48%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 49%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv Sofia | 11 | 55% | 36% | 82% |
| Botev Vratsa | 11 | 55% | 27% | 45% |
More: Lokomotiv Sofia season stats · Botev Vratsa season stats · First League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.