3. Liga · Saturday, 24 October 2026 · 13:00. Our rating makes this 62% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 3. Liga average is 64%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 38% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | 61% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 63% | 37% | Yes |
The result model puts Hansa Rostock at 35%, the draw at 24% and Fortuna Düsseldorf at 41%, from expected goals of 1.56 and 1.68.
The league sets the starting point. 3. Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 64% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Hansa Rostock have 5 in 10 this season (2 of 4 at home), Fortuna Düsseldorf 6 in 10 (3 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 60% and 63%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 10 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 63% and 61%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 62%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 63%, from expected goals of 1.56 for Hansa Rostock and 1.68 for Fortuna Düsseldorf. Folding in 30% of that view gives 62%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hansa Rostock | 10 | 50% | 50% | 60% |
| Fortuna Düsseldorf | 10 | 60% | 20% | 60% |
More: Hansa Rostock season stats · Fortuna Düsseldorf season stats · 3. Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.