Cymru Premier · Saturday, 24 October 2026 · 12:30. Our rating makes this 63% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Cymru Premier average is 55%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 37% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | 59% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts GAP Connah S Quay FC at 73%, the draw at 16% and Llandudno at 12%, from expected goals of 2.67 and 0.99.
The league sets the starting point. Cymru Premier has produced over 2.5 goals in 55% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. GAP Connah S Quay FC have 9 in 13 this season (4 of 7 at home), Llandudno 8 in 13 (5 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 60% and 57%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 13 and 13 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 61% and 62%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 60%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 71%, from expected goals of 2.67 for GAP Connah S Quay FC and 0.99 for Llandudno. Folding in 30% of that view gives 63%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GAP Connah S Quay FC | 13 | 69% | 23% | 54% |
| Llandudno | 13 | 62% | 46% | 62% |
More: GAP Connah S Quay FC season stats · Llandudno season stats · Cymru Premier table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.