NB I · Saturday, 24 October 2026 · 16:00. Our rating makes this 63% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The NB I average is 59%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 37% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 60% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 62% | 38% | Yes |
The result model puts Ferencvarosi TC at 62%, the draw at 20% and MTK Budapest at 17%, from expected goals of 2.21 and 1.08.
The league sets the starting point. NB I has produced over 2.5 goals in 59% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Ferencvarosi TC have 4 in 9 this season (1 of 3 at home), MTK Budapest 8 in 10 (3 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 55% and 65%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 61% and 65%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 62%.
Head to head. These sides have met 8 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 75%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 63%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 64%, from expected goals of 2.21 for Ferencvarosi TC and 1.08 for MTK Budapest. Folding in 30% of that view gives 63%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ferencvarosi TC | 9 | 44% | 22% | 67% |
| MTK Budapest | 10 | 80% | 30% | 70% |
More: Ferencvarosi TC season stats · MTK Budapest season stats · NB I table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.