Premiere Ligue (W) · Saturday, 24 October 2026 · 17:00. Our rating makes this 59% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Premiere Ligue (W) average is 58%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 41% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 65% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts FC Fleury 91 W at 45%, the draw at 24% and Toulouse W at 31%, from expected goals of 1.75 and 1.43.
The league sets the starting point. Premiere Ligue (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. FC Fleury 91 W have 3 in 5 this season (2 of 2 at home), Toulouse W 5 in 5 (3 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 59% and 66%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 5 and 5 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 50% and 66%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 58%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 62%, from expected goals of 1.75 for FC Fleury 91 W and 1.43 for Toulouse W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 59%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Fleury 91 W | 5 | 60% | 60% | 80% |
| Toulouse W | 5 | 100% | 80% | 60% |
More: FC Fleury 91 W season stats · Toulouse W season stats · Premiere Ligue (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.