First League · Saturday, 24 October 2026 · 16:00. Our rating makes this 49% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The First League average is 45%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 75% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | Yes |
The result model puts Cherno More Varna at 51%, the draw at 25% and Septemvri Sofia at 24%, from expected goals of 1.71 and 1.09.
The league sets the starting point. First League has produced over 2.5 goals in 45% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Cherno More Varna have 6 in 11 this season (4 of 5 at home), Septemvri Sofia 7 in 11 (3 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 48% and 51%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 11 and 11 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 43% and 48%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 46%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 46%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 53%, from expected goals of 1.71 for Cherno More Varna and 1.09 for Septemvri Sofia. Folding in 30% of that view gives 48%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 49%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cherno More Varna | 11 | 55% | 45% | 64% |
| Septemvri Sofia | 11 | 64% | 18% | 55% |
More: Cherno More Varna season stats · Septemvri Sofia season stats · First League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.