League One · Saturday, 24 October 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 53% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The League One average is 51%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 68% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts Cambridge United at 24%, the draw at 23% and Plymouth at 53%, from expected goals of 1.23 and 1.93.
The league sets the starting point. League One has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Cambridge United have 6 in 10 this season (3 of 5 at home), Plymouth 5 in 11 (2 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 54% and 49%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 10 and 11 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 45% and 54%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 50%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 61%, from expected goals of 1.23 for Cambridge United and 1.93 for Plymouth. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cambridge United | 10 | 60% | 20% | 90% |
| Plymouth | 11 | 45% | 27% | 45% |
More: Cambridge United season stats · Plymouth season stats · League One table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.