NB I · Saturday, 24 October 2026 · 16:00. Our rating makes this 58% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The NB I average is 59%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 42% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 64% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 39% | Yes |
The result model puts Budapest Honved at 26%, the draw at 24% and Debreceni VSC at 51%, from expected goals of 1.24 and 1.83.
The league sets the starting point. NB I has produced over 2.5 goals in 59% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Budapest Honved have 5 in 9 this season (2 of 4 at home), Debreceni VSC 5 in 10 (2 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 58% and 57%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 58% and 57%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 58%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 59%, from expected goals of 1.24 for Budapest Honved and 1.83 for Debreceni VSC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 58%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budapest Honved | 9 | 56% | 44% | 78% |
| Debreceni VSC | 10 | 50% | 40% | 60% |
More: Budapest Honved season stats · Debreceni VSC season stats · NB I table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.