Super League · Saturday, 24 October 2026 · 19:30. Our rating makes this 74% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Super League average is 68%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 74% | 26% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 70% | 30% | Yes |
The result model puts BSC Young Boys at 41%, the draw at 21% and FC ST. Gallen at 38%, from expected goals of 2.16 and 2.1.
The league sets the starting point. Super League has produced over 2.5 goals in 68% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. BSC Young Boys have 9 in 10 this season (5 of 5 at home), FC ST. Gallen 7 in 10 (3 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 75% and 69%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 10 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 72% and 69%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 70%.
Head to head. These sides have met 10 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 90%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 71%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 80%, from expected goals of 2.16 for BSC Young Boys and 2.1 for FC ST. Gallen. Folding in 30% of that view gives 74%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BSC Young Boys | 10 | 90% | 90% | 80% |
| FC ST. Gallen | 10 | 70% | 50% | 60% |
More: BSC Young Boys season stats · FC ST. Gallen season stats · Super League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.