Allsvenskan · Saturday, 24 October 2026 · 14:00. Our rating makes this 54% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Allsvenskan average is 52%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 46% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 66% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts BK Hacken at 50%, the draw at 23% and Degerfors IF at 27%, from expected goals of 1.92 and 1.35.
The league sets the starting point. Allsvenskan has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. BK Hacken have 13 in 24 this season (8 of 12 at home), Degerfors IF 9 in 23 (4 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 53% and 46%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 24 and 23 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 52% and 49%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 50%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 63%, from expected goals of 1.92 for BK Hacken and 1.35 for Degerfors IF. Folding in 30% of that view gives 54%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BK Hacken | 24 | 54% | 38% | 54% |
| Degerfors IF | 23 | 39% | 13% | 39% |
More: BK Hacken season stats · Degerfors IF season stats · Allsvenskan table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.