Damallsvenskan (W) · Saturday, 24 October 2026 · 12:00. Our rating makes this 54% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Damallsvenskan (W) average is 64%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 46% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 72% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | Yes |
The result model puts AIK W at 52%, the draw at 28% and Rosengård W at 20%, from expected goals of 1.43 and 0.76.
The league sets the starting point. Damallsvenskan (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 64% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. AIK W have 15 in 22 this season (7 of 11 at home), Rosengård W 8 in 22 (4 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 66% and 51%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 22 and 22 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 62% and 57%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 61%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 80%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 62%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 37%, from expected goals of 1.43 for AIK W and 0.76 for Rosengård W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 54%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AIK W | 22 | 68% | 27% | 59% |
| Rosengård W | 22 | 36% | 14% | 50% |
More: AIK W season stats · Rosengård W season stats · Damallsvenskan (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.