Allsvenskan · Friday, 23 October 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 49% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Allsvenskan average is 52%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 72% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 52% | No |
The result model puts Vasteras SK FK at 60%, the draw at 25% and Halmstad at 15%, from expected goals of 1.65 and 0.7.
The league sets the starting point. Allsvenskan has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Vasteras SK FK have 12 in 24 this season (3 of 12 at home), Halmstad 9 in 24 (5 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 51% and 45%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 24 and 24 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 54% and 47%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 50%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 42%, from expected goals of 1.65 for Vasteras SK FK and 0.7 for Halmstad. Folding in 30% of that view gives 47%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 49%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vasteras SK FK | 24 | 50% | 38% | 42% |
| Halmstad | 24 | 38% | 17% | 46% |
More: Vasteras SK FK season stats · Halmstad season stats · Allsvenskan table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.