2. Liga · Friday, 23 October 2026 · 17:30. Our rating makes this 55% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 2. Liga average is 52%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts SV Kapfenberg at 26%, the draw at 25% and SKN ST. Polten at 49%, from expected goals of 1.18 and 1.69.
The league sets the starting point. 2. Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. SV Kapfenberg have 5 in 9 this season (3 of 5 at home), SKN ST. Polten 3 in 9 (2 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 53% and 47%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 9 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 56% and 53%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 60%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 54%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 55%, from expected goals of 1.18 for SV Kapfenberg and 1.69 for SKN ST. Polten. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SV Kapfenberg | 9 | 56% | 44% | 44% |
| SKN ST. Polten | 9 | 33% | 22% | 33% |
More: SV Kapfenberg season stats · SKN ST. Polten season stats · 2. Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.