2. Bundesliga · Friday, 23 October 2026 · 17:30. Our rating makes this 56% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 2. Bundesliga average is 58%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 44% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 67% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 41% | Yes |
The result model puts SV Darmstadt 98 at 46%, the draw at 25% and FC St. Pauli at 29%, from expected goals of 1.64 and 1.25.
The league sets the starting point. 2. Bundesliga has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. SV Darmstadt 98 have 6 in 8 this season (3 of 4 at home), FC St. Pauli 3 in 8 (2 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 62% and 53%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 8 and 8 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 58% and 56%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 57%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 55%, from expected goals of 1.64 for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1.25 for FC St. Pauli. Folding in 30% of that view gives 56%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SV Darmstadt 98 | 8 | 75% | 50% | 50% |
| FC St. Pauli | 8 | 38% | 25% | 75% |
More: SV Darmstadt 98 season stats · FC St. Pauli season stats · 2. Bundesliga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.