Premier League · Friday, 23 October 2026 · 20:00. Our rating makes this 55% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Premier League average is 55%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 68% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts Ipswich at 32%, the draw at 25% and Nottingham Forest at 43%, from expected goals of 1.38 and 1.62.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.73 | 55% | 55% | +0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.10 | 45% | 45% | 0% |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 | 58% | 56% | -1% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Ipswich 3.10, draw 3.30, Nottingham Forest 2.25.
The league sets the starting point. Premier League has produced over 2.5 goals in 55% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Ipswich have 5 in 7 this season (2 of 3 at home), Nottingham Forest 3 in 7 (3 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 59% and 52%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 7 and 7 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 54% and 53%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 54%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 58%, from expected goals of 1.38 for Ipswich and 1.62 for Nottingham Forest. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich | 7 | 71% | 43% | 71% |
| Nottingham Forest | 7 | 43% | 29% | 43% |
More: Ipswich season stats · Nottingham Forest season stats · Premier League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.