National League · Friday, 23 October 2026 · 19:45. Our rating makes this 62% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The National League average is 58%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 38% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 63% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 62% | 38% | Yes |
The result model puts Gateshead at 33%, the draw at 23% and Tamworth at 43%, from expected goals of 1.56 and 1.8.
The league sets the starting point. National League has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Gateshead have 8 in 13 this season (2 of 6 at home), Tamworth 11 in 13 (6 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 59% and 67%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 13 and 13 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 61% and 59%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 60%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 75%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 60%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 65%, from expected goals of 1.56 for Gateshead and 1.8 for Tamworth. Folding in 30% of that view gives 62%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Gateshead season stats · Tamworth season stats · National League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.