Premier Division · Friday, 23 October 2026 · 19:45. Our rating makes this 52% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Premier Division average is 48%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 48% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 73% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | Yes |
The result model puts Bohemians at 42%, the draw at 27% and Shelbourne at 31%, from expected goals of 1.39 and 1.17.
The league sets the starting point. Premier Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 48% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Bohemians have 22 in 34 this season (10 of 17 at home), Shelbourne 21 in 34 (9 of 17 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 58% and 56%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 34 and 34 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 56% and 55%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Head to head. These sides have met 11 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 45%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 54%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 47%, from expected goals of 1.39 for Bohemians and 1.17 for Shelbourne. Folding in 30% of that view gives 52%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bohemians | 34 | 65% | 32% | 68% |
| Shelbourne | 34 | 62% | 29% | 74% |
More: Bohemians season stats · Shelbourne season stats · Premier Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.