2. Liga · Friday, 23 October 2026 · 17:30. Our rating makes this 55% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 2. Liga average is 52%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 68% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts Austria Vienna (Am) at 55%, the draw at 22% and Sturm Graz II at 23%, from expected goals of 2.02 and 1.24.
The league sets the starting point. 2. Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Austria Vienna (Am) have 6 in 9 this season (4 of 5 at home), Sturm Graz II 7 in 9 (4 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 59%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 9 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 50% and 54%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 63%, from expected goals of 2.02 for Austria Vienna (Am) and 1.24 for Sturm Graz II. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austria Vienna (Am) | 9 | 67% | 44% | 56% |
| Sturm Graz II | 9 | 78% | 78% | 67% |
More: Austria Vienna (Am) season stats · Sturm Graz II season stats · 2. Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.