Pro League · Friday, 23 October 2026 · 14:30. Our rating makes this 61% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Pro League average is 56%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 39% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 58% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts Al-Faisaly FC at 12%, the draw at 17% and Al-Nassr at 72%, from expected goals of 0.94 and 2.56.
The league sets the starting point. Pro League has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Al-Faisaly FC have 4 in 8 this season (2 of 5 at home), Al-Nassr 7 in 8 (3 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 55% and 64%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 8 and 8 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 55% and 61%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 57%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 68%, from expected goals of 0.94 for Al-Faisaly FC and 2.56 for Al-Nassr. Folding in 30% of that view gives 61%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Faisaly FC | 8 | 50% | 50% | 63% |
| Al-Nassr | 8 | 88% | 25% | 63% |
More: Al-Faisaly FC season stats · Al-Nassr season stats · Pro League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.