Pro League · Friday, 23 October 2026 · 19:00. Our rating makes this 62% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Pro League average is 56%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 38% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | 57% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts Al-Ahli Jeddah at 77%, the draw at 14% and Al Khaleej Saihat at 9%, from expected goals of 2.75 and 0.82.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.50 | 63% | 62% | -1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.50 | 38% | 38% | +1% |
| Both teams to score | 1.73 | 54% | 55% | +1% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.36, draw 4.33, Al Khaleej Saihat 7.50.
The league sets the starting point. Pro League has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Al-Ahli Jeddah have 8 in 9 this season (3 of 3 at home), Al Khaleej Saihat 3 in 10 (2 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 65% and 48%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 57% and 59%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 57%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 80%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 59%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 69%, from expected goals of 2.75 for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 0.82 for Al Khaleej Saihat. Folding in 30% of that view gives 62%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Ahli Jeddah | 9 | 89% | 78% | 44% |
| Al Khaleej Saihat | 10 | 30% | 20% | 50% |
Our numbers give this match a 73% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 39% of two or more. The Pro League rates, last season and this season combined, are 75% and 40% (this season so far: 70% with a first-half goal, from 88 games). After the break: 80% for a goal and 50% for two or more (league 79% and 49%). Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 50 games had a first-half goal 72% of the time and a second-half goal 82%; Al Khaleej Saihat's last 50, 72% and 80%. A goal in both halves: 61% (league 60%). Highest-scoring half: second 44%, first 31%, level 25% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Al-Ahli Jeddah season stats · Al Khaleej Saihat season stats · Pro League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.