League One · Tuesday, 20 October 2026 · 19:45. Our rating makes this 52% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The League One average is 51%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 48% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 72% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Notts County at 25%, the draw at 25% and Sheffield Wednesday at 50%, from expected goals of 1.07 and 1.63.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.80 | 53% | 52% | 0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.00 | 47% | 48% | +0% |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 | 56% | 54% | -2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Notts County 3.20, draw 3.40, Sheffield Wednesday 2.15.
The league sets the starting point. League One has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Notts County have 3 in 9 this season (2 of 4 at home), Sheffield Wednesday 6 in 9 (4 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 46% and 55%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 9 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 52% and 53%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 51%, from expected goals of 1.07 for Notts County and 1.63 for Sheffield Wednesday. Folding in 30% of that view gives 52%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notts County | 9 | 33% | 11% | 67% |
| Sheffield Wednesday | 9 | 67% | 33% | 56% |
More: Notts County season stats · Sheffield Wednesday season stats · League One table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.