League One · Tuesday, 20 October 2026 · 19:45. Our rating makes this 52% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The League One average is 51%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 48% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 71% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Doncaster at 25%, the draw at 26% and Stockport County at 49%, from expected goals of 1.03 and 1.57.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.65 | 57% | 52% | -5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.20 | 43% | 48% | +5% |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 | 59% | 54% | -5% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Doncaster 3.75, draw 3.75, Stockport County 1.85.
The league sets the starting point. League One has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Doncaster have 4 in 9 this season (1 of 4 at home), Stockport County 6 in 10 (2 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 49% and 54%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 50% and 55%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 53%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 53%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 48%, from expected goals of 1.03 for Doncaster and 1.57 for Stockport County. Folding in 30% of that view gives 52%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doncaster | 9 | 44% | 22% | 56% |
| Stockport County | 10 | 60% | 50% | 50% |
More: Doncaster season stats · Stockport County season stats · League One table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.