League Two · Tuesday, 20 October 2026 · 19:45. Our rating makes this 47% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The League Two average is 47%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 74% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | Yes |
The result model puts Crawley Town at 45%, the draw at 28% and Shrewsbury at 27%, from expected goals of 1.39 and 1.02.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.85 | 51% | 47% | -5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 49% | 53% | +5% |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 | 56% | 51% | -4% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Crawley Town 2.75, draw 3.25, Shrewsbury 2.50.
The league sets the starting point. League Two has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Crawley Town have 5 in 9 this season (2 of 4 at home), Shrewsbury 4 in 11 (2 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 49% and 44%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 11 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 46% and 46%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 46%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 46%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 43%, from expected goals of 1.39 for Crawley Town and 1.02 for Shrewsbury. Folding in 30% of that view gives 45%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 47%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crawley Town | 9 | 56% | 33% | 67% |
| Shrewsbury | 11 | 36% | 18% | 36% |
More: Crawley Town season stats · Shrewsbury season stats · League Two table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.