League One · Tuesday, 20 October 2026 · 19:45. Our rating makes this 50% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The League One average is 51%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 73% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | Yes |
The result model puts Cambridge United at 41%, the draw at 26% and Wycombe at 33%, from expected goals of 1.47 and 1.29.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.70 | 55% | 50% | -5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.10 | 45% | 50% | +5% |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 | 59% | 58% | -1% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Cambridge United 2.20, draw 3.40, Wycombe 3.00.
The league sets the starting point. League One has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Cambridge United have 6 in 10 this season (3 of 5 at home), Wycombe 6 in 10 (2 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 54% and 54%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 10 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 45% and 52%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 49%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 25%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 48%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 52%, from expected goals of 1.47 for Cambridge United and 1.29 for Wycombe. Folding in 30% of that view gives 49%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 50%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cambridge United | 10 | 60% | 20% | 90% |
| Wycombe | 10 | 60% | 50% | 80% |
More: Cambridge United season stats · Wycombe season stats · League One table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.