League One · Tuesday, 20 October 2026 · 19:45. Our rating makes this 51% to go over 2.5 goals, though our own outlier boards contradict the call, so we sit it out. The League One average is 51%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 75% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | no pick |
The result model puts Burton Albion at 35%, the draw at 28% and Bradford at 37%, from expected goals of 1.19 and 1.25.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.05 | 46% | 51% | +5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.75 | 54% | 49% | -5% |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 | 52% | 54% | +2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Burton Albion 3.60, draw 3.30, Bradford 2.00.
The league sets the starting point. League One has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Burton Albion have 8 in 11 this season (4 of 5 at home), Bradford 1 in 10 (0 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 58% and 39%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 11 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 53% and 48%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 50%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 53%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 44%, from expected goals of 1.19 for Burton Albion and 1.25 for Bradford. Folding in 30% of that view gives 50%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 51%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burton Albion | 11 | 73% | 45% | 73% |
| Bradford | 10 | 10% | 0% | 20% |
More: Burton Albion season stats · Bradford season stats · League One table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.