Eerste Divisie · Monday, 19 October 2026 · 19:00. Our rating makes this 61% to go over 2.5 goals, though our own outlier boards contradict the call, so we sit it out. The Eerste Divisie average is 64%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 39% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 60% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 62% | 38% | no pick |
The result model puts Jong Utrecht at 32%, the draw at 24% and Roda at 43%, from expected goals of 1.4 and 1.67.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.62 | 58% | 61% | +3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.25 | 42% | 39% | -3% |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 | 59% | 62% | +3% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Jong Utrecht 3.50, draw 3.70, Roda 1.95.
The league sets the starting point. Eerste Divisie has produced over 2.5 goals in 64% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Jong Utrecht have 9 in 10 this season (4 of 5 at home), Roda 2 in 10 (0 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 71% and 51%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 10 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 64% and 58%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 62%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 60%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 62%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 59%, from expected goals of 1.4 for Jong Utrecht and 1.67 for Roda. Folding in 30% of that view gives 61%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jong Utrecht | 10 | 90% | 50% | 90% |
| Roda | 10 | 20% | 10% | 40% |
More: Jong Utrecht season stats · Roda season stats · Eerste Divisie table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.