Eerste Divisie · Monday, 19 October 2026 · 19:00. Our rating makes this 65% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Eerste Divisie average is 64%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 35% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% | 55% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 64% | 36% | Yes |
The result model puts Jong Ajax at 30%, the draw at 22% and De Graafschap at 48%, from expected goals of 1.54 and 2.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.30 | 73% | 65% | -8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.50 | 27% | 35% | +8% |
| Both teams to score | 1.28 | 73% | 64% | -10% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Jong Ajax 2.75, draw 3.90, De Graafschap 2.25.
The league sets the starting point. Eerste Divisie has produced over 2.5 goals in 64% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Jong Ajax have 6 in 10 this season (3 of 5 at home), De Graafschap 8 in 10 (4 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 63% and 69%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 10 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 63% and 66%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 65%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 40%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 63%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 69%, from expected goals of 1.54 for Jong Ajax and 2 for De Graafschap. Folding in 30% of that view gives 65%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jong Ajax | 10 | 60% | 40% | 60% |
| De Graafschap | 10 | 80% | 40% | 80% |
More: Jong Ajax season stats · De Graafschap season stats · Eerste Divisie table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.