Serie B · Monday, 19 October 2026 · 23:30. Our rating makes this 43% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Serie B average is 41%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 57% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | 80% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts Goias at 45%, the draw at 28% and Nautico Recife at 28%, from expected goals of 1.4 and 1.04.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 49% | 43% | -6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.85 | 51% | 57% | +6% |
| Both teams to score | 1.83 | 50% | 49% | -1% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Goias 1.70, draw 3.60, Nautico Recife 4.75.
The league sets the starting point. Serie B has produced over 2.5 goals in 41% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Goias have 12 in 33 this season (6 of 16 at home), Nautico Recife 13 in 33 (7 of 16 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 38% and 40%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 33 and 33 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 39% and 39%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 39%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 44%, from expected goals of 1.4 for Goias and 1.04 for Nautico Recife. Folding in 30% of that view gives 41%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 43%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goias | 33 | 36% | 18% | 39% |
| Nautico Recife | 33 | 39% | 18% | 45% |
More: Goias season stats · Nautico Recife season stats · Serie B table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.