Premier League · Monday, 19 October 2026 · 11:00. Our rating makes this 45% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Premier League average is 47%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 55% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 75% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 45% | 55% | No |
The result model puts FC Kharkiv at 45%, the draw at 29% and Livyi Bereh at 25%, from expected goals of 1.3 and 0.89.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.85 | 51% | 45% | -7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 49% | 55% | +7% |
| Both teams to score | 2.00 | 46% | 45% | -1% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: FC Kharkiv 1.48, draw 3.80, Livyi Bereh 5.75.
The league sets the starting point. Premier League has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. FC Kharkiv have 4 in 7 this season (1 of 4 at home), Livyi Bereh 1 in 7 (0 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 40%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 45%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 37%, from expected goals of 1.3 for FC Kharkiv and 0.89 for Livyi Bereh. Folding in 30% of that view gives 43%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 45%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Kharkiv | 7 | 57% | 29% | 29% |
| Livyi Bereh | 7 | 14% | 14% | 43% |
More: FC Kharkiv season stats · Livyi Bereh season stats · Premier League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.