1. Lig · Monday, 19 October 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 51% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 1. Lig average is 52%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 71% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | Yes |
The result model puts Esenler Erokspor at 41%, the draw at 28% and Mardin 1969 at 32%, from expected goals of 1.36 and 1.16.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.00 | 47% | 51% | +3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.80 | 53% | 49% | -3% |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 | 51% | 50% | -1% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Esenler Erokspor 1.90, draw 3.30, Mardin 1969 3.50.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Lig has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Esenler Erokspor have 2 in 10 this season (1 of 4 at home), Mardin 1969 3 in 10 (3 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 42% and 45%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 10 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 50% and 53%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 46%, from expected goals of 1.36 for Esenler Erokspor and 1.16 for Mardin 1969. Folding in 30% of that view gives 50%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 51%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esenler Erokspor | 10 | 20% | 10% | 40% |
| Mardin 1969 | 10 | 30% | 10% | 30% |
More: Esenler Erokspor season stats · Mardin 1969 season stats · 1. Lig table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.