Ligat Ha'al · Monday, 19 October 2026 · 18:30. Our rating makes this 63% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Ligat Ha'al average is 56%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 37% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | 56% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 39% | Yes |
The result model puts Beitar Jerusalem at 32%, the draw at 22% and Maccabi Tel Aviv at 46%, from expected goals of 1.65 and 2.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.40 | 67% | 63% | -4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.88 | 33% | 37% | +4% |
| Both teams to score | 1.40 | 66% | 61% | -5% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Beitar Jerusalem 2.90, draw 3.75, Maccabi Tel Aviv 1.95.
The league sets the starting point. Ligat Ha'al has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Beitar Jerusalem have 5 in 6 this season (3 of 3 at home), Maccabi Tel Aviv 5 in 6 (3 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 61% and 61%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 6 and 6 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 60% and 62%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 60%.
Head to head. These sides have met 10 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 60%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 60%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 71%, from expected goals of 1.65 for Beitar Jerusalem and 2 for Maccabi Tel Aviv. Folding in 30% of that view gives 63%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beitar Jerusalem | 6 | 83% | 50% | 50% |
| Maccabi Tel Aviv | 6 | 83% | 67% | 83% |
More: Beitar Jerusalem season stats · Maccabi Tel Aviv season stats · Ligat Ha'al table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.