Pro League · Monday, 19 October 2026 · 19:00. Our rating makes this 59% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Pro League average is 56%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 41% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 62% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 69%, the draw at 18% and Al-Hazm at 12%, from expected goals of 2.28 and 0.84.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.28 | 74% | 59% | -14% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.60 | 26% | 41% | +14% |
| Both teams to score | 2.38 | 39% | 54% | +15% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.07, draw 11.00, Al-Hazm 26.00.
The league sets the starting point. Pro League has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have 6 in 8 this season (3 of 4 at home), Al-Hazm 4 in 9 (3 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 61% and 53%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 8 and 9 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 58% and 56%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 57%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 59%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 60%, from expected goals of 2.28 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 0.84 for Al-Hazm. Folding in 30% of that view gives 59%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 8 | 75% | 50% | 38% |
| Al-Hazm | 9 | 44% | 33% | 67% |
More: Al-Hilal Saudi FC season stats · Al-Hazm season stats · Pro League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.