Pro League · Monday, 19 October 2026 · 16:20. Our rating makes this 57% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Pro League average is 56%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 66% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | Yes |
The result model puts Abha at 35%, the draw at 26% and Al Kholood at 39%, from expected goals of 1.35 and 1.43.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.85 | 51% | 57% | +5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 49% | 43% | -5% |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 | 56% | 58% | +2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Abha 2.62, draw 3.20, Al Kholood 2.35.
The league sets the starting point. Pro League has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Abha have 5 in 8 this season (1 of 3 at home), Al Kholood 6 in 9 (2 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 58% and 59%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 8 and 9 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 58% and 60%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 58%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 53%, from expected goals of 1.35 for Abha and 1.43 for Al Kholood. Folding in 30% of that view gives 57%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abha | 8 | 63% | 25% | 63% |
| Al Kholood | 9 | 67% | 56% | 78% |
More: Abha season stats · Al Kholood season stats · Pro League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.