Allsvenskan · Sunday, 18 October 2026 · 13:00. Final score 1–0 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 53% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Vasteras SK FK at 28%, the draw at 26% and Mjallby AIF at 46%, from expected goals of 1.2 and 1.59.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.80 | 53% | 53% | +0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.00 | 47% | 47% | 0% |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 | 56% | 53% | -3% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Vasteras SK FK 2.38, draw 3.30, Mjallby AIF 2.88.
The league sets the starting point. Allsvenskan has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Vasteras SK FK have 12 in 23 this season (3 of 11 at home), Mjallby AIF 11 in 23 (6 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 52% and 50%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 23 and 23 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 55% and 49%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 53%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 53%, from expected goals of 1.2 for Vasteras SK FK and 1.59 for Mjallby AIF. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vasteras SK FK | 23 | 52% | 39% | 43% |
| Mjallby AIF | 23 | 48% | 26% | 52% |
More: Vasteras SK FK season stats · Mjallby AIF season stats · Allsvenskan table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.