2. Liga · Sunday, 18 October 2026 · 09:30. Final score 0–2 (half-time 0–2). Before kick-off we rated it 59% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 41% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 65% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 41% | Yes |
The result model puts Sturm Graz II at 51%, the draw at 22% and SV Kapfenberg at 27%, from expected goals of 2.12 and 1.52.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.50 | 63% | 59% | -3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.50 | 38% | 41% | +3% |
| Both teams to score | 1.44 | 65% | 59% | -5% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Sturm Graz II 1.83, draw 3.75, SV Kapfenberg 3.40.
The league sets the starting point. 2. Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Sturm Graz II have 7 in 8 this season (3 of 4 at home), SV Kapfenberg 5 in 8 (2 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 61% and 55%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 8 and 8 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 54% and 56%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 60%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 55%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 70%, from expected goals of 2.12 for Sturm Graz II and 1.52 for SV Kapfenberg. Folding in 30% of that view gives 59%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sturm Graz II | 8 | 88% | 88% | 75% |
| SV Kapfenberg | 8 | 63% | 50% | 50% |
More: Sturm Graz II season stats · SV Kapfenberg season stats · 2. Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.