Serie B · Sunday, 18 October 2026 · 20:00. Final score 0–1 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 62% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 62% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16% | 84% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 46% | 54% | No |
The result model puts São Bernardo at 31%, the draw at 33% and Criciuma at 36%, from expected goals of 0.89 and 0.99.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.25 | 42% | 38% | -4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.62 | 58% | 62% | +4% |
| Both teams to score | 2.00 | 46% | 46% | 0% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: São Bernardo 3.40, draw 3.25, Criciuma 2.20.
The league sets the starting point. Serie B has produced over 2.5 goals in 41% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. São Bernardo have 19 in 41 this season (8 of 20 at home), Criciuma 7 in 33 (5 of 16 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 44% and 30%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 41 and 33 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 44% and 31%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 38%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 29%, from expected goals of 0.89 for São Bernardo and 0.99 for Criciuma. Folding in 30% of that view gives 36%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 38%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| São Bernardo | 41 | 46% | 22% | 56% |
| Criciuma | 33 | 21% | 9% | 33% |
More: São Bernardo season stats · Criciuma season stats · Serie B table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.